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The science of making predictions – and the art of knowing when not to

Poor predictions—from religious oracles warning of worldwide catastrophes to the politicians and economists whose analyses affect our daily lives—are integral to the story of our civilization. At the same time, we cannot function without predictions: we need to know how heavy the traffic will be on our way home, or if there is an economic downturn on the horizon. Making better predictions is vital to our livelihood, but how do we do so? Kit Yates explores these issues and much more in "How To Expect the Unexpected."