Democrats feel that President Trump's massive tax-and-spending bill is giving them an opening — and a message — ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The focus is Medicaid, which provides health insurance for tens of millions of lower-income and elderly Americans, and affordability.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, in an hours-long speech in opposition to the bill on Thursday, called it "cruel" and "dangerous." He, like other Democrats, focused on the almost $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, an effort to partially offset the trillions of dollars Trump's tax cut extension will cost.
"This bill represents the largest cut to health care in American history," Jeffries said. "It's an all-out assault on the health care of the American people."
Trump is beginning his own messaging campaign on what may wind up being the one, signature piece of legislation for his second term.
"THE ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL DEAL IS ALL ABOUT GROWTH," Trump wrote on social media this week. "IF PASSED, AMERICA WILL HAVE AN ECONOMIC RENAISSANCE LIKE NEVER BEFORE."
Trump held an event in Iowa Thursday night, a day before Independence Day. It was complete with fireworks, and it kicked off a year-long celebration of the country's 250th birthday that the administration is calling "America250." He also promoted the legislation.
"There can be no better birthday present for America than the phenomenal victory we achieved just hours ago," Trump said of the passage of the bill.
Trump signaled he's prepared to hit the campaign trail for the legislation — and he didn't hide his disdain for Democrats because none voted for it.
"I think we'll use it in the campaign that's coming up — the midterms, because we've got to beat them," he said, adding, "But all of the things that we've given and they wouldn't vote, only because they hate Trump — but I hate them too. You know that? I really do. I hate them."
Republicans are on their back foot when it comes to this bill.
Polling has shown that more people oppose than support the bill. But, as the White House points out, provisions like work requirements for Medicaid get more support.
So a lot of the politics, as usual, are going to come down to how the argument is framed.
One hurdle for Republicans here, though, is that it's hard to argue a negative — that without passage of the bill, people would see a tax increase.
That's not quite the same as saying, Everyone is getting a tax cut!
What's more, the cuts to Medicaid will be tangible for a lot of people. Almost 7 in 10 say either they themselves, a family member or a close friend has been covered by the program, according to KFF.
Medicaid, like other social safety net programs, is also very popular. KFF found:
- 83% have a favorable opinion of the program;
- 82% want to see Medicaid funding either increased or remain the same;
- 69% said they think the program is working well for most low-income people covered;
- 66% of those in states that did not expand Medicaid coverage want to see it expanded in their state;
- 62% see Medicaid as primarily a government health insurance program as opposed to a welfare program. A majority of Republicans, though, said they see it as a welfare program.
There are some widely held, but incorrect views about the program as well. For example:
- 62% believe that most working age adults on Medicaid are unemployed, including three-quarters of 2024 Trump voters and half of Democrats;
- Almost half believed immigrants in the country without permanent legal status are on Medicaid, even though that's not true. And a similar percentage also incorrectly believe immigrants without permanent legal status are eligible for the program.
Republicans continue to argue that they are targeting "waste, fraud and abuse," but nearly 12 million people are projected to lose their health insurance over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan group of staff who provide analysis to support the legislative process.
Health care has been a salient issue in midterm elections.
In 2010, Democrats lost control of the House — and 63 seats — in part because of conservative anger about the Affordable Care Act. In the summer of 2010 during the peak of the Tea Party fervor, just 35% had a favorable view of the health care legislation.
But once former President Obama left the White House, the ACA steadily grew more popular. In fact, in February of 2017, the month after Obama left, views of the law flipped from net-negative to net positive and has only gotten more favorable, according to KFF's tracking poll.
As of last month, it hit its highest favorability rating ever — 66%.
Health care became an issue in the 2018 midterm elections, this time helping Democrats win back control of the House. It is eight years to the month of the late Arizona Sen. John McCain's dramatic, late-night thumbs down on the Senate floor, voting against his fellow Republicans' attempt to repeal the ACA.
That effectively killed GOP attempts at undoing the legislation.
Democrats are also hoping to benefit from Republicans' unpopularity, but they have their own problems.
Trump has just a 43% approval rating in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. On the economy, Trump gets just a 39% approval, lower than any score he received in his first term on the issue.
Congressional Republicans only get a 35% approval rating.
But congressional Democrats are even less popular. Just 27% said they approve of the job congressional Democrats are doing.
That's largely because of Democrats themselves. Only 44% of Democrats said they approve of congressional Democrats.
That's a whopping 30 points lower than how Republicans feel about Republicans in Congress.
The last time Democrats were viewed that negatively in Marist's polling was 2018, the same year Democrats won the House.
The question is whether Democrats rally ahead of the midterms, as they did then, or if the dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party signifies something deeper within their ranks and leads to Republicans holding onto narrow control of the chamber.
So if Democrats want to win back the House, they are going to have to get their own house in order first.
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