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The Utah Avalanche Center lists the current avalanche danger as high in upper elevations and considerable at mid elevations. Forecaster Greg Gagne said human-triggered avalanches are very likely and natural avalanches are likely as well.
That’s because the slow start to winter has left a persistent weak layer at the bottom of the snowpack.
“Over Christmas, we put a rain crust on top, and that's made the snow pack supportable, but at some point you put enough of a load onto a slope, and you're going to find a weak layer, you're going to trigger avalanches,” he said.
Gagne is especially concerned as an avalanche buried two skiers near Brighton Resort Saturday. Avalanche Center experts said evidence shows the skiers ducked a closure rope to get to the area. They were able to dig themselves out. Still, the scale of the avalanche was considerable; it was about 200 feet wide, three feet deep and carried the backcountry visitors for about 600 feet.
In his daily avalanche report, Gagne reminded backcountry visitors that ducking ropes or going out of bounds at a ski area can mean skiing into dangerous avalanche conditions.
He said Utah leads the nation in avalanche fatalities in out-of-bounds areas. In fact, a 2016 study of 114 avalanche fatalities in Utah between 1940 and 2015 found that nearly one in five were among individuals who had entered out-of-bounds or closed terrain from mountain resorts.
The conditions that led to the slide near Brighton are present along the Park City ridge line, Gagne said.
“We've had a lot of heavy, dense snow and strong winds,” he said. “A party triggered a small avalanche, initially on the ridge line, and what it did was it stepped down to that Christmas layer crust, about two to three feet deep, and then from there went all the way down to the ground.”
That avalanche was about five feet deep and 250 feet wide.
Overall, Gagne said the conditions in the Park City area backcountry are tricky. Some slopes have a strong enough slab and crust to support the recent snowfall, but others can’t take the extra load.
And more snow is on the horizon. According to the National Weather Service, there’s a 30% chance of snow in the Park City area Tuesday and a 70% and 80% chance of snow Wednesday and Thursday.
Gagne said the new and wind-driven snow will get stronger as the snow settles, but the persistent weak layer will take longer to stabilize.
For those who can’t wait to ride in the backcountry, Gagne recommends sticking to low-angled slopes — those less than 30 degrees — to avoid a greater avalanche risk.
