The U.S. economy faces a bit of uncertainty in the last quarter of 2025. The federal government is shut down with no end in sight, small businesses are reeling with the roller coaster ride around tariffs and AI continues to disrupt industries across the economy.
"I'd say that the national economy is struggling," Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi told an Oct. 16 economic roundtable hosted by the University of Utah's Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. "It's not in recession. It's growing, but the rate of growth is slow. It's below the economy's potential."
One of the biggest indicators that gives Zandi and others pause is the labor market.
"There's just absolutely no hiring," he said. "There's a hiring freeze, it feels like, across many industries and parts of the country."
According to the latest Utah data, health care and education have seen the most job growth, while the trades and construction have shrunk. Zandi said that echoes nationwide trends, but he sees Utah in a better economic position than the rest of the country.
"I think Utah will weather the storm, whatever the storm is, better than much of the rest of the country," he said. "It's a very diversified economy, so it's not vulnerable to a problem in a specific sector or specific industry."
The state will find out more when the next jobs report comes out Oct. 17.
In the meantime, Utah is home to a growing tech sector, abundant natural resources and has topped national rankings of best states to start a business.
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Chief Economist Phil Dean agreed that Utah is in a strong position right now. That doesn't mean the state has smooth sailing ahead, though.
"We're not an island," he said. "We're part of the U.S. and we're subject to all of those same pressures, and we have risk just like the rest of the country has risk."
But there's another variable Zandi sees working in Utah's favor.
"The one thing, as a visitor to Utah, that strikes me is how cohesive the politics are," he said.
"I live in Philadelphia. That's my hometown, that's where I grew up," he continued. "Pennsylvania has got a much more fractured political process, and that makes it much more difficult to address very pressing issues."
In Utah, Republicans hold a supermajority in the Legislature and a monopoly on all statewide elected offices. While that can allow the state to act quickly in a crisis — economic or otherwise — whether that direction is the right one is often a matter of political opinion.
Zandi still thinks Utah is in an "enviable position" of social and political cohesion compared to many states around the country.
"There's a lot going for Utah," he said. "But it's not immune from the storms."
One of those storms is the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence in many sectors. The groundbreaking technology has allowed for rapid growth, but some career paths once seen as promising, like coding and more entry-level positions, are beginning to be replaced by AI tools.
"There's a lot of kids that are just discouraged," Zandi said. "Young people switch jobs. They want promotions. They're working hard to move up the ladder, and that ladder is becoming a lot harder to move up."
The current uncertainty is Dean's biggest worry when it comes to the overall health of Utah's economy. But he also thinks it could present opportunities for employers and workers in a state with such a rich entrepreneurial spirit.
"It doesn't mean there aren't challenges, and it doesn't mean that that necessarily does all work out," he said. "But I also think those times of uncertainty create the most opportunity for those that can figure out how to navigate it."
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