The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute looks at topics that impact the state of Utah, especially population. A recent study led by the institute’s senior demographer Emily Harris details how residents move in and out of each county in Utah which reveals geographic ties and trends that are unique to each county.
Harris said the data they used came from American Community Survey data which is an in-depth demographic and housing survey that tracked people over time.
“Because this data is large, the survey sample is large, we're able to look at the county level impact as well, which is what we thought was really useful for this study, because talking about the state in general, is you know, very interesting, but it really just raises more questions, right," she said. "So being able to drill down to the county level really helps provide some more insight to local citizens, but also stakeholders and planners as well.”
While anecdotally, locals think most of the recent transplants are coming from California, Harris said the study found that those moving here between 2015 and 2019 came from Las Vegas, Phoenix, Seattle as well as Los Angeles.
“Utah really has those western migration ties, which, you know, isn't really a surprise," she said. "But what we like about this study is that instead of just framing everything as Californians, we can drill down and really see that when we look at the county level, the largest flows are not necessarily coming from California, but some of our other really important partners like Nevada and Arizona.”
Looking specifically at the Wasatch Back, Harris said while Summit County tends to attract people from out of state, Wasatch County attracts a fair amount of people already living in Utah.
During the years studied (2015-2019), Summit County shows a net decrease of residents. Harris said this may not reflect what the in-migration to Summit County has been post-COVID.
“Even though some might technically be experiencing a little net out-migration, they're still receiving a really large influx of people moving to the county, particularly from out of state,” she said. “So, you're still going to see a lot of new and different cars on the streets, maybe with different license plates, people buying homes. So, you know, it's not necessarily like people are just massively leaving Summit County. This is 2015 to 2019 time period, which is very different we would argue than potentially what it is now, especially post-COVID.”
Harris suspects that out-migration of Summit County can be attributed to housing prices. Because it’s so expensive to live here, she said people will leave to find more affordable housing.
“It’s not necessarily that they're attracting a lot of out-of-state folks, it's that you're starting to see a reshuffling of Utah residents,” Harris said. “Just trying to find a better way, an easier way to live their lives. And if they have to commute 10 minutes longer, maybe that's worth it for them, especially if mortgages are just really expensive and interest rates are really high. So, I think like people are making calculated decisions based on, you know, the economic situations and realities that they're facing.”
She said she believes the institute will eventually do a study on Utah’s migration data post-COVID. See the full report and accompanying county-to-county profiles here.
