The Wasatch Back saw a full-time population bump immediately after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but in 2022 and 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau says Summit County’s population actually contracted.
Data is out for 2024, and it’s mixed.
The census estimates Summit County gained 170 people while the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah estimated it shrank by 186.
County Economic Development and Housing Director Jeff Jones explains the two differ in terms of methodology, so county leaders regularly consult a mix of state, federal and third-party data.
“And then out of all of that we try to determine, you know, what is the most legitimate trend that we see happening,” Jones told KPCW.
The census uses births, deaths and migration patterns to generate its population estimates while Kem C. Gardner primarily uses building permits and counts units of housing.
The census and the Gardner institute agree that Henefer, Kamas and Oakley shrank by anywhere from several to a couple dozen people. The state says the Park City School District as a whole is seeing declining enrollment, suggesting a decline in the youth population.
There’s also consensus that Francis is the fastest-growing Summit County town, gaining dozens of people last year and nearly 300 over the past four years.
Since 2020, the Gardner institute says Summit County has gained more than 900 people, despite the institute estimating a loss last year.
The census says the county’s net growth was 750 during that time frame; Summit County lost an estimated 420 people in 2022 and 2023, according to federal counts.
If the growth trend reverses, Jones thinks it would affect eastside economies more directly than westside. That’s because rural Summit County businesses rely more on residents than visitors as day-to-day customers.
“In communities that are more dependent — their economy is more dependent — on tourism, where they're drawing people in, they may be less dependent on resident population, but that also means that they have to pull in more tourists if they are losing more resident population,” Jones said.
Growth is usually a hot-button issue in Wasatch Back politics.
And depending on the context, the word “growth” might mean more heads, or more rooftops, which Summit County Community Development Director Peter Barnes says are not the same thing.
“An increasing number of our houses are vacant, but that's something of a misnomer. Are those houses empty, or are they being used for short term rentals?” Barnes said on KPCW’s “Local News Hour” July 2. “And if they're being used for short term rentals, we're actually getting busier, in terms of the number of services, the number of people, the frequent visitors, the amount of traffic, the services being provided.”
Wasatch County, meanwhile, continues to grow.
The new data from the Gardner institute shows it added about 800 people from 2023 to 2024, most of them in Heber, which now has more than 19,000 residents. Click here for more.
