Certain weather patterns can help predict what kind of winter Utah will have. One of the most significant indicators is whether an El Niño or La Niña pattern is present over the Pacific Ocean.
The two patterns represent opposite extremes. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño causes the northern U.S. and Canada to be drier and warmer than usual. La Niña causes drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.
Salt Lake City-based National Weather Service meteorologist David Church said there’s currently a 71% chance Utah will experience a weak La Niña pattern from October through December. There’s also a 50% chance La Niña could last through late winter.
That means there’s an equal chance Utah will see above or below average precipitation.
“We basically sit in the middle of the signal, where north of Utah, as you get up into the Northern Rockies and Montana, they're looking at above-average potential precipitation,” he said on KPCW's "Local News Hour" Friday. “Then as you go further south into the desert southwest, you're looking at below-average precipitation.”
Church said it's not uncommon for northern Utah to have average or above average snowfall during La Niña, but emphasized there’s a lot of variability.
For example, both the 2017-2018 and 2022-2023 winters had weak La Niña signals. But during the 2017-2018 season, Utah’s snowfall was significantly below-average, while record snow totals were recorded in 2022-2023.
Church said the weather pattern also favors slightly above-average temperatures.
“What we've seen in some past La Niña winters is a tendency for a little bit more valley rain and more mountain snow type setups, if we get that kind of temperature and precipitation combination,” he said.
Despite the winter outlook having about equal chances of having above or below average snowfall, Church said locals should still prepare for the season. That includes winterizing vehicles.
